Measuring Violent Conflict in Household Surveys - SSA

Perugia, Italy

The Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Cross Cutting Solutions Area (FCV CCSA) and the Development Data Group Survey Unit (DECSU) held the third of three planned workshops on “Measuring Violent Conflict in Household Surveys” in Perugia, Italy on 26-30 November 2018. These workshops are funded by the Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building. 

Conflict and violence are critical development challenges, and often a direct cause of forced displacement. Understanding the dynamics of conflicts and providing government and partners with useful information to better handle the challenges caused by conflicts are crucial.

The training centered on the Conflict Exposure Module which was developed in response to the needs of national statistical offices (NSOs) for information on how conflict is affecting the well-being of households in their own countries, as well as neighboring ones. It represented a great opportunity for a deeper discussion on how to improve official statistics to better reflect the effects of crises exposure and inform policy-making.

This workshop also included a session on quantitatively forecasting the likelihood of worsening conditions of food scarcity. As part of the Famine Early Action Mechanism initiative, a suite of quantitative models is being developed.  The project is constructing an ensemble model that uses advanced artificial intelligence algorithms to estimate and forecast the near to mid-term risk of famine at a local (district/province) level using a variety of remotely sensed imagery and georeferenced survey data. This is the first time that this has been presented in the workshops and was especially pertinent to the participants as it has been tested in some of the participating countries.

Participants represented multiple NSOs from Sub-Saharan Africa, including Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The presenters were from organizations that work in the area of conflict, refugees and internally displaced persons. These included the World Bank, the International Security and Development Center (ISDC), the Joint IDP Profiling Service (JIPS), and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR).